The Effect of Minority Districts and Minority Representation on Political Participation in California

The effect of minority districts and minority representation on political participation in California / Claudine Gay. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. iii Foreword Now that the 2000 Census has shown that California is a majority-minority state, more and more observers have become interested in the political, social, and economic consequences of the state's shifting demographic profile. For its sheer speed and magnitude, this change is unprecedented in the United States. Since 1960, California has doubled its population, and demographers predict that the population will nearly double again by 2040. A generation ago, 80 percent of Californians were non-Hispanic whites; a generation from now, 50 percent will be Latino. This demographic transformation is leading California and its policymakers into new and uncharted waters. For this reason, PPIC began an intensive study of this transformation and its consequences in 1998. Our work to date includes a portrait of race and ethnicity in California, an assessment of how different ethnic groups react to legal authority, a study of attitudes toward public policy by race and ethnicity, and an investigation of voting behavior in homogeneous and ethnically diverse neighborhoods. Claudine Gay's study, which examines voter turnout by race and ethnicity in California's congressional districts, adds a new and significant dimension to that research effort. Her primary question—is voter turnout increased in majority-minority districts—pertains directly to the redistricting process that will be triggered by the 2000 Census. Her findings indicate that turnout among minority voters in the 1994 elections was highest wherever they were able to play a meaningful role in political life. After adjusting for such variables as age, education, and income, she finds that registered voter turnout among Latinos was 33 percentage points higher in majority-Latino districts than in majority-Anglo districts. African-American voting-age turnout was highest in districts where blacks and Latinos were equally matched and together formed the majority of the voting-age population. She also finds that Anglo turnout did not suffer in districts where whites were a minority. iv The next redistricting effort can and will influence voter participation, especially …